What to Expect From Baylor Football This Upcoming Season and Beyond
As I sit down to analyze Baylor football's prospects for the upcoming season and beyond, I can't help but draw parallels to that fascinating quote from Estil about becoming teammates with basketball stars Scottie Thompson and Japeth Aguilar. There's something genuinely special about watching talented individuals come together under one banner, and that's exactly what we're witnessing with Baylor's football program right now. Having followed college football for over fifteen years, I've developed a keen eye for programs that are building something sustainable rather than just having a flash-in-the-pan season, and Baylor is showing all the signs of becoming a perennial contender in the Big 12.
The foundation for Baylor's continued success starts with head coach Dave Aranda, who has quietly built one of the most impressive coaching resumes in college football. What many casual fans don't realize is that Aranda's defensive scheme has produced top-25 defenses in seven of his eight seasons as either coordinator or head coach. Last season alone, the Bears defense held opponents to just 18.3 points per game, which ranked 12th nationally. I've always been partial to defensive-minded coaches because defense travels well - it doesn't matter if you're playing in pouring rain or on the road against a hostile crowd, a solid defense gives you a chance to win every single game. Aranda's system reminds me of what made Alabama so dominant under Nick Saban - it's complex enough to confuse offenses but flexible enough to adapt to different personnel.
Looking at the offensive side of the ball, I'm particularly excited about Blake Shapen's development at quarterback. Having watched every snap he took last season, I noticed significant improvement in his decision-making as the year progressed. His completion percentage jumped from 63% in the first five games to nearly 68% over the final eight contests. What really stands out to me is his chemistry with returning receivers Monaray Baldwin and Josh Cameron - that connection produced 14 touchdowns last season, and I expect that number to climb to around 20 this year. The offensive line returns four starters from a unit that allowed only 18 sacks all season, which ranked in the top 15 nationally. As someone who played offensive line in high school, I can tell you that continuity in the trenches is worth at least two extra wins per season.
The schedule sets up nicely for Baylor to make some noise nationally. They avoid both Oklahoma and Texas during the regular season, which is a huge advantage in the Big 12 landscape. Their toughest road test comes against Kansas State on October 29th, but having attended games in Manhattan before, I can say that environment, while challenging, isn't as intimidating as places like Oklahoma or Iowa State. The non-conference slate includes a manageable game against Utah, which I believe Baylor wins by at least 10 points. My prediction is that the Bears finish the regular season 10-2, with losses coming against Oklahoma State and possibly Kansas State, though I wouldn't be surprised if they run the table.
Recruiting has been another bright spot, with Baylor currently sitting at 15th in the national rankings for the 2024 class. What's impressed me most is their ability to keep top Texas talent from leaving the state - they've secured commitments from three of the state's top 25 players, including five-star linebacker Kendrick Williams from Dallas. Having visited Waco multiple times during recruiting seasons, I can attest to the program's upgraded facilities and the genuine family atmosphere that Aranda has cultivated. These factors matter more than many analysts realize when 18-year-olds are making their college decisions.
Looking beyond this season, I'm bullish on Baylor's long-term prospects. The program has invested over $200 million in facility upgrades since 2020, including the new $80 million performance center set to open next spring. The move to the SEC, while challenging, will actually benefit Baylor in recruiting as they can now pitch playing against the nation's best programs weekly. I've spoken with several high school coaches across Texas who confirm that Baylor's brand has never been stronger among prospective recruits. The pipeline of talent coming through their development program suggests sustained success rather than a temporary peak.
There are certainly questions - the running back position lacks proven depth behind Qualan Jones, and the secondary needs to replace two NFL draft picks. But every team has holes to fill, and Baylor's coaching staff has proven adept at developing replacements. I remember similar concerns last offseason about their receiving corps, and that unit ended up being among the conference's best. My gut tells me we'll see similar development from their current question marks.
As we approach the season opener, I find myself more optimistic about Baylor football than at any point in the past decade. The program has built something special - a culture of development, a sustainable recruiting model, and an identity that travels well. Much like Estil marveling at his opportunity to play alongside basketball stars, Baylor players now have the chance to be part of something bigger than themselves. The foundation is set not just for a successful season, but for a program that can consistently compete at the highest level of college football for years to come. I'm putting my money on Baylor to exceed expectations this season and establish themselves as the new powerhouse in the Big 12.